The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, is a multi-billion-dollar project aimed at improving infrastructure, transportation, and energy cooperation between China and Pakistan. While it holds significant potential for economic development, certain aspects of CPEC can exacerbate climate change through increased greenhouse gas emissions.

Many of the energy projects under CPEC involve the construction of coal-fired power plants. Coal is one of the most carbon-intensive forms of energy, and burning coal for electricity generation releases a large amount of carbon dioxide (CO2), a major greenhouse gas. Even with modern, cleaner technologies, coal-fired plants are significant sources of emissions. In a country like Pakistan, where environmental regulations might be less stringent, the impact can be more pronounced. These emissions contribute to the global total of greenhouse gases, thereby accelerating the process of climate change.

CPEC includes the development of a network of roads, highways, and railways to facilitate trade and connectivity. While this improves transportation, it also leads to an increase in vehicular traffic. More vehicles, especially those running on fossil fuels, mean higher emissions of CO2, as well as other pollutants like nitrogen oxides and particulate matter. The increase in heavy-duty vehicles such as trucks for transporting goods is particularly concerning, as they are major contributors to greenhouse gas emissions compared to passenger vehicles.

Increased industrial activities, which often accompany such major infrastructure projects, also contribute to higher energy demands, often met through fossil fuel-based energy sources, further increasing emissions. The cumulative effect of these activities can be substantial, contributing to Pakistan’s total greenhouse gas emissions. In the global context, while Pakistan’s emissions might be a small fraction of the world’s total, the addition of emissions from all such development projects worldwide significantly impacts global climate change efforts.

Likewise, industrial processes often generate wastewater that contains chemicals, heavy metals, and other pollutants. If not properly treated, this wastewater can be discharged into rivers and lakes, contaminating water sources. Water pollution affects ecosystems, harms aquatic life, and can make water unsafe for human consumption and agricultural use. Similarly, construction activities associated with CPEC, including road building and mining, can lead to soil erosion and sedimentation in water bodies. This sedimentation can harm aquatic habitats and affect water quality. Mining activities, especially coal mining, can lead to acid mine drainage, a significant source of water pollution.

Both air and water pollution can have detrimental effects on local ecosystems. Air pollutants can damage vegetation and soil quality, while water pollutants can disrupt aquatic ecosystems. The loss of biodiversity can occur due to habitat destruction and pollution, affecting the ecological balance. Communities near industrial zones, mining sites, and along the CPEC transportation routes are particularly at risk of health problems due to air and water pollution. Chronic exposure to polluted air and water can lead to long-term health issues, including respiratory illnesses, gastrointestinal diseases, and other chronic conditions. To address these environmental and health concerns, it’s crucial for CPEC projects to incorporate stringent environmental regulations and pollution control measures. This includes implementing clean technology in industries, ensuring proper waste and wastewater management, and promoting the use of cleaner fuels and vehicles.

Notwithstanding, Gilgit-Baltistan, located in the Himalayan region, is home to numerous glaciers. These glaciers are sensitive indicators of climate change. As global temperatures rise due to increased greenhouse gas emissions, glaciers in this region are melting at an accelerated rate. This accelerated melting is a direct consequence of climate change, primarily driven by human activities, including those related to projects like CPEC that increase carbon emissions. The melting glaciers lead to the formation and expansion of glacial lakes. These lakes are often dammed by ice or moraines (accumulations of glacial debris). Over time, as more ice melts, these lakes can grow in size, increasing the volume of water they contain. Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) occur when the natural dam holding back a glacial lake fails. This can happen due to further melting, physical weakening of the ice or moraine barriers, seismic activity, or an avalanche. When a GLOF occurs, it releases a massive amount of water suddenly, often carrying rocks, mud, and other debris. These floods can be extremely destructive, with the potential to wipe out villages, infrastructure, and farmlands.

Communities living downstream of these glacial lakes are at significant risk. GLOFs can lead to loss of life, damage to homes, and destruction of agricultural lands. Infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and power facilities can also be severely impacted, which can have long-term economic repercussions. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of GLOFs. As temperatures continue to rise, more glacial melt will occur, and the risk of these sudden floods will grow. This creates an urgent need for monitoring and early warning systems in regions like Gilgit-Baltistan to protect vulnerable communities. This situation in Gilgit-Baltistan is a stark reminder of the broader impacts of climate change, especially in mountainous and glacial regions. It underscores the need for sustainable environmental practices in large-scale projects like CPEC to mitigate further contributions to global warming.

The expected increase in the frequency and severity of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) due to climate change, particularly in regions like Gilgit-Baltistan, is a critical concern in the context of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). CPEC projects, including large-scale infrastructure development and fossil fuel-based energy generation, contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, thus exacerbating climate change. GLOFs can have devastating consequences, including loss of life, destruction of homes, agriculture, and local infrastructure. This is especially concerning for CPEC projects like roads and bridges, which could be directly impacted. Communities in Gilgit-Baltistan, many of which are already economically vulnerable, would face significant setbacks in terms of safety, economic stability, and development. Given the increased risk, there is an urgent need for effective monitoring and early warning systems in Gilgit-Baltistan. Such systems would involve using satellite imagery and on-the-ground sensors to monitor glacial lakes’ status, predict potential GLOF events, and provide timely warnings to communities. Moreover, CPEC planning and execution must consider GLOF risks. This includes conducting thorough environmental and risk assessments for new projects, especially those in proximity to glacial areas. Infrastructure design should incorporate resilience to GLOFs, and there should be emergency response plans in place for vulnerable areas.

Addressing the GLOF threat in Gilgit-Baltistan requires collaboration between Chinese and Pakistani authorities, local communities, and international organizations with expertise in climate change and disaster management. Addressing the Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) threat in Gilgit-Baltistan, a region in Pakistan’s northern mountain ranges, involves significant efforts from the local government and international organizations. The region, due to rising temperatures, is experiencing rapid melting of glaciers in the Hindu Kush, Himalayas, and Karakoram ranges. This has led to the formation of over 3,000 glacial lakes, out of which 33 are prone to hazardous GLOF events. These events can release millions of cubic meters of water and debris, posing significant risks to lives, property, and livelihoods in remote and impoverished mountain communities, affecting over 7.1 million people in Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP).

One major initiative to mitigate these risks is the Scaling-up of GLOF risk reduction in Northern Pakistan (GLOF-II) project. This project is a continuation of the four-year ‘Reducing Risks and Vulnerabilities from GLOF in Northern Pakistan’ (GLOF-I) project. It aims to empower communities to manage risks associated with GLOFs and related climate change impacts, strengthen public services to lower GLOF-related disaster risks, and improve community preparedness and response. The project will cover 10 districts, benefiting 29 million people, or 15% of Pakistan’s population.

Similarly, GLOF-II includes various interventions such as early warning systems, enhanced infrastructure, community-based disaster risk management, small-scale engineering structures to mitigate GLOF effects, and weather monitoring stations. Importantly, the project also focuses on sustainable livelihood options, particularly emphasizing women’s participation in ensuring food security and livelihoods. Additionally, the UNDP has conducted a set of four trainings on Disaster Risk Management (DRM) in Islamabad, focusing on building capacities of participants from government departments and local communities in GB and KP. These trainings have addressed basic DRM concepts and terminologies, proactive DRM framework implementation, mainstreaming disaster risk reduction in different sectors, and integrating gender concerns in disaster planning and response. These efforts represent a collaborative approach involving local authorities, international organizations like UNDP, and the community members themselves, crucial for effectively addressing the GLOF threat in Gilgit-Baltistan​​​​​​. Likewise, investments in research, community education, and capacity building are essential to enhance local resilience to GLOFs.

To sum up, the focus on fossil fuels in energy projects contrasts with the global shift towards renewable energy sources, which are critical for mitigating climate change. Incorporating more renewable energy projects within CPEC could help reduce its carbon footprint. Integrating renewable energy sources into the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is crucial for reducing its carbon footprint and aligning with the global shift towards sustainable energy. While CPEC brings economic opportunities, it also intensifies the challenges associated with climate change and GLOFs in regions like Gilgit-Baltistan. Thus, integrating comprehensive environmental strategies and risk management into CPEC is crucial for the long-term safety and sustainability of both the local communities and the infrastructure projects.